As of this morning, the Dona Ana county bond measure to build the spaceport in southern New Mexico is passing by a margin of 204 votes. All regular votes have been counted, although the results will not be official for another week. 541 provisional votes -- cast by citizens whose voting eligibility could not immediately be confirmed -- remain to be canvassed and counted.
Historical trends suggest that about 200 of the provisional votes will not be valid. They also suggest that the yes/no balance of the provisional votes will be close to that of the main votes.
For the ballot to fail now, valid, provisional votes against it will have to outnumber votes for it by 205 -- possibly a little less, if a recount changes the numbers a bit. That means that the provisional voters must go against the measure by more than (small pause for math: 541-205=336. 336/2=168 168/(168+205)=45% -- which is the smallest percent of yes votes that can fail, obtained when all ballots are valid and yes loses by one vote.) 55% to 45%. It's still possible the measure will fail. However, its chances of passing look very decent at this point.
It will take a week to check the validity of the provisional ballots and return officials results. I am fairly optimistic that the measure will pass.
In fact, I'm excited! To see this grand project move ahead in my lifetime -- where I will be able to see the vertical contrails from my home -- pleases me very much. I truly look forward to our next steps.